At best, it would slow Iranian nuclear projects by a few years. * The plan was likely to backfire, in a grand-strategy sense. It could use its influence on the world’s oil markets to shock Western economies-most of all, that of the world’s largest oil importer, the United States. ![]() Iran, until now relatively restrained in using its influence among the Iraqi Shiites, “could make Iraq hell,” in the words of one of our experts, Kenneth Pollack, of the Brookings Institution. Iran spread its research to at least a dozen sites-exactly how many, and where, the U.S. Iran’s leaders had learned from what happened to Saddam Hussein in 1981, when Israeli F-16s destroyed a facility at Osirak where most of his nuclear projects were concentrated. How could this be, given America’s crushing strength and wealth relative to Iran’s? There were three main problems: When exposed to “What then?” analysis, this plan (or a variant in which the United States looked the other way while Israel did the job) held more dangers than rewards for the United States. The experts disagreed on some details but were nearly unanimous on one crucial point: what might seem America’s ace in the hole-the ability to destroy Iran’s nuclear installations in a pre-emptive air strike-was a fantasy. Some had been for and some against the invasion of Iraq all had served in the Pentagon, intelligence agencies, or other parts of the nation’s security apparatus, and many had dealt directly with Iran. strategy for the first Gulf War, we assembled a panel of experts to ask “What then?” about the ways in which the United States might threaten, pressure, or entice the Iranians not to build a bomb. So under the guidance of Sam Gardiner, a retired Air Force colonel who had conducted many real-world war games for the Pentagon, including those that shaped U.S. War games are not a staple of this magazine’s operation, but in light of difficulties in Iraq, we wanted to play out the long-term implications of possible U.S. ![]() It was at this time, in September 2004, that The Atlantic sponsored a “war game” to consider what choices the United States might have if the Iranian problem built to a crisis. ![]() From the archives: Will Iran Be Next? In 2004, James Fallows reported on a war game The Atlantic conducted, simulating preparations for a U.S.
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